Turkey is an important partner of the European Union, but it is a difficult partner, and even after the elections are over and Erdogan wins, many controversial issues will remain between the parties. But the important question remains what is the fate of Turkey's accession negotiations to the European bloc.

Edited by| Christian Megan

Politic section -  CJ journalist

Brussels – May,31,2023

The European Commission is taking a critical look at the increasingly authoritarian orientation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "Serious concerns about the deterioration of democracy, the rule of Law, Human Rights and judicial independence have not been heeded," the latest EU report on Turkey for 2022 said.

There is a steady decline "as concerns about economic policy and a functioning market economy increase," but despite this, the report believes that Turkey remains an important strategic partner on issues of migration, climate protection and energy security.

Turkey, a NATO member with a well-equipped army, plays an important role in mediating the grain agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

The heads of state and government of the EU member states have strongly criticized the Turkish threats to EU member Cyprus and Greece. Turkey has repeatedly violated the sovereignty of the airspace and territorial waters of the two countries.

The EU also always demands that Turkey respect the rulings of the European Court of human rights, such as the release of prominent Turkish human rights activist Osman Kavala, who was sentenced to life imprisonment in 2022, for participating in anti-government demonstrations in 2013 against the Gezi Park project in Istanbul in 2013. The Justice and Development Government in Ankara interprets these protests as an attempt to overthrow her and therefore Kavala's participation in them was considered an attempted coup!

According to an analysis by the Turkish foreign ministry, "there has always been progress and decline" in the relationship between the EU and Turkey over the past decades. After the alleged coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July 2016, to which the government responded with emergency laws and restrictions on democratic rights, the relationship with the European Union deteriorated significantly, the Turkish Foreign Ministry says.

"The cold and critical attitude of the European Union after the malicious coup attempt on July 15, 2016, created a crisis of confidence . The fact that the EU does not understand the influence of the terrorist organization "FETÖ" and criticizes the actions taken by Turkey, weakens the dialogue," the Turkish president means by "FETÖ" a terrorist conspiracy led by the preacher and Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, a resident of the United States.

But despite this, the EU remains an important strategic partner for Turkey, and the 2015 refugee convention is especially highlighted. Turkey is sheltering about 3.5 million Syrian refugees, and for this it has received financial assistance of about 9 billion euros from the European Union, part of which has been paid.

Knowing that the agreement is fragile, in 2020 the Turkish president announced the opening of the land border with Greece to refugees, using them as a pressure card against the European Union. But despite everything, membership of the European Union remains a goal of the Turkish government, and it will one day become one of its members. But the EU should solve its internal problems before that, according to the analysis of the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

In 2018, Brussels practically suspended negotiations on Turkey's accession to the European Union, without canceling them.

The negotiations that began in 2005 can now be revived after the presidential elections are over. But on condition that Turkey at least indirectly recognizes, that the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the European Union. Turkish troops have been occupying the northern part of Cyprus for about fifty years.

"The accession efforts are not dead, but they are in a coma," said Turkish affairs expert Amanda Powell, a researcher at the EPC European Policy Center in Brussels.

With Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the presidency, there is little hope of getting out of the coma. But it's not just about Turkey, but also about the European Union, according to Amanda Powell .

And now there is not much interest among the EU member states and Brussels, to deal with Turkey becoming more and more nationalistic, Powell says and adds, "EU membership is still very popular with Turks. About 70 percent of them still support their country's accession to the European Union,"he said.

"It is a difficult relationship, and it has deteriorated further over time. In all seriousness, I don't think there will be positive changes," says Amanda Powell. German Foreign Minister Annalina birbuk openly criticized Turkey during her meeting with her Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in Istanbul in July 2022. But she also made it clear that there is no need for another confrontation, since the west through NATO must remain cohesive to deter Russia.

"Friendship also means listening to each other until our ears hurt," birbuk said at the time in Istanbul during a press conference, stressing the issue of friendship. The European Union and NATO expect that after the elections, Turkey will finally agree that Sweden will also join the alliance.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is believed to have blocked the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, for internal reasons related to the elections. He ended his opposition to Finland's accession last April, and is expected to announce his approval of Sweden's accession as well next July.

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