Europe’s biggest armed conflict since World War II is poised to enter a key new phase in the coming weeks. With no suggestion of a negotiated end to the 13 months of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, a counteroffensive by Kyiv’s

 Edited by| Hugh Gey

 Politic section -  CJ journalist

Kyiv – April,1,2023

      Kyiv faces a key tactical question: How can the Ukrainian military dislodge Kremlin forces from the land they are occupying? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working hard to keep his troops, and the general public, motivated for a long fight.

Now, Kyiv can take advantage of improved weather to seize the battlefield initiative with new batches of Western weapons, including scores of tanks, and fresh troops trained in the West.

But Russian forces are dug in deep, lying in wait behind minefields and along kilometers (miles) of trenches.

The Ukrainian military starts the season with an influx of powerful weapons.

Germany said this week that it had delivered the 18 Leopard 2 tanks it promised to Ukraine. Poland, Canada, and Norway have also handed over their pledged Leopard tanks. British Challenger tanks have arrived too.

  Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, has said he’s hopeful Western partners will supply at least two battalions of the German-made Leopard 2s by April. He also expects six or seven battalions of Leopard 1 tanks, with ammunition, from a coalition of countries.

Also pledged are U.S. Abrams tanks and French light tanks, along with Ukraine soldiers recently trained in their use.

Western help has been vital in strengthening Ukraine’s dogged resistance and shaping the course of the war. Zelenskyy recognizes that without U.S. help, his country has no chance to prevail.

The new supplies, including howitzers, anti-tank weapons, and 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition, will add more muscle to the Ukraine military and give it a bigger punch.

“Sheer numbers of tanks can drive a deeper wedge into Russian holding positions,” Nixey said.

In their counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces will look to break through the land corridor between Russia and the annexed Crimean peninsula, moving from Zaporizhzhia toward Melitopol and the Azov Sea, according to Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov.

If successful, the Ukrainians “will split the Russian troops into two halves and cut off supply lines to the units that are located further to the west, in the direction of Crimea,” Zhdanov said.

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The operations would have “the twin aims of persuading Putin to accept a negotiated compromise or of creating military realities sufficiently favorable to Ukraine that Kyiv and its Western allies can then effectively freeze the conflict on their own regardless of Putin’s decisions,” the institute said in an assessment published this week.

Nixey has no doubt that each side will keep “tearing chunks out of each other” over the coming months in the hope of gaining an advantage at the negotiating table.

A make-or-break period may lie ahead: If Kyiv fails to make progress on the battlefield with its Western-supplied weapons, allies may become reluctant to send it more of the expensive hardware.

The stakes are high: Defeat for Ukraine would “have global ramifications, and there will be no such thing as European security as we (currently) understand it,” Nixey said.

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