Beijing-January 17, 2023

For the first time in six decades

China's population fell last year in a historic shift that is expected to mark the beginning of a long period of decline in the numbers of its citizens with profound implications for its economy and the world

The country's National Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease of about 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in 2022 , the first decrease since 1961, the last year of the Great Famine in China

This probably makes India the largest country in the world in terms of population. UN experts last year predicted that India's population would reach 1.412 billion in 2022, although they did not expect the South Asian country to overtake China until this year

However, India only collects population figures every 10 years , and its last census, originally scheduled for 2021, was delayed due to the pandemic

In the long term, UN experts see China's population shrinking by 109 million by 2050, more than three times the decrease of their previous forecast in 2019

This is what made local demographers lament that China will grow old before it becomes rich, which will lead to a slowdown in the economy with a decrease in revenues and an increase in government debt due to rising health and social welfare costs

"The demographic and economic outlook for China is darker than expected. China will have to adjust its social, economic, defense and foreign policies."

He added that the country's shrinking workforce and declining manufacturing heft will further exacerbate high prices and high inflation in the United States and Europe

"Economic growth should be based more on productivity growth," added Qi Wei Zhang, chief economist at bepent Asset Management

Kang Yi, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, dismissed concerns about the population decline, telling reporters that "the total supply of Labor still exceeds demand."

The birth rate in China last year was only 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from 7.52 births in 2021 and representing the lowest birth rate ever

The number of Chinese women of childbearing age, which the government defines as between the ages of 25 and 35, has decreased by about 4 million, Kang said

The death rate, the highest since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution, was 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people, compared to an average of 7.18 deaths in 2021

However, a large part of the demographic downturn is due to the one-child policy imposed by China between 1980 and 2015 as well as the high costs of education that have resulted in many Chinese being denied more than one child or even having any child at all

The one-child policy and the traditional preference for boys have also led to a deep gender imbalance. The latest data shows that China has about 722 million males compared to 690 million females. The imbalance , which is more pronounced in rural areas , has led to the formation of fewer families in recent years

Also, the main reason why women do not want to have children lies not in themselves, but in the failure of society and men to take responsibility for raising children. For women giving birth, this leads to a serious decrease in the quality of their life and spiritual life"

Chinese netizens have also previously complained about the pressure on newlyweds to have offspring as soon as possible, reporting regular calls from their local government asking when they can expect a pregnancy

China's strict anti-coronavirus policies that have been in effect for three years have caused further damage to the country's Demographic Outlook, population experts said

Since 2021, local governments have implemented measures to encourage people to have more children, including tax cuts, longer maternity leave and housing subsidies. Chinese President Xi Jinping also said in October that the government will enact more supportive policies

However, the measures so far have done little to stop the long-term trend

The opposite is happening in India, where Google Trends shows a 15% year-on-year increase in searches for baby bottles in 2022, while searches for cribs have increased almost fivefold