Singapore-January 31, 2023

At a press conference in Singapore, the chief economist announced

At the IMF, Pierre-Olivier gurenchas forecast the world economy for 2023

Due to the "surprisingly resilient" demand in the US and Europe, the IMF on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast for 2023،

It is also due to the decline in energy costs, the reopening of the Chinese economy after Beijing abandoned its strict restrictions on the coronavirus.

The IMF said global growth would still fall to 2.9 percent in 2023, from 3.4 percent in 2022.

The IMF's latest forecast for the global economic outlook shows an improvement over the October forecast, which predicted growth of 2.7 percent this year with warnings that the world could easily slip into recession.

For 2024, the IMF said that global growth will accelerate slightly to 3.1 percent, but this is one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the October forecast, as central bank rate hikes have slowed demand.

Pierre-Olivier gorenchas said recession risks had receded and central banks were making progress in controlling inflation, but more action was needed to rein in prices.

The new unrest may come from the escalation of the war in Ukraine, and China's battle against covid-19.

"We have to be somewhat prepared to expect the unexpected, but it could mark a turning point, with growth bottoming out and then inflation easing,"gorencas told reporters about the 2023 forecast.

The report added that growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to decline to 3.2 percent in 2023, from 5.3 percent in 2022 .

In its 2023 GDP forecast, the IMF said it now expects U.S. GDP growth of 1.4 percent, up from the 1.0 percent it had forecast in October, and after 2.0 percent growth in 2022. He cited stronger-than-expected consumption and investment in the third quarter of 2022, a strong labor market and strong consumer balance sheets.

The IMF said the eurozone had made similar gains, with the bloc forecasting growth in 2023 at 0.7 percent, up from 0.5 percent in the October forecast, after 3.5 percent growth in 2022.

The IMF said that Europe has adapted to rising energy costs faster than expected, and low energy prices have helped the region.

Britain was the only major advanced economy predicted by the International Monetary Fund to be in recession this year, with a 0.6 percent drop in GDP, as households struggle with rising living costs including energy and mortgages.

The IMF revised China's growth forecast sharply upward for 2023, to 5.2 percent from 4.4 percent in the October forecast, after the "zero covid" lockdown policies in 2022 reduced China's growth rate to 3.0 percent, a pace below the global average for the first time in more than 40 years.

But the improvement caused by the return of the mobility of the Chinese will be short-lived.

At the same time, the outlook for India remains strong, with unchanged forecasts for growth to decline in 2023 to 6.1 percent, but will rebound to 6.8 percent in 2024, commensurate with its performance in 2022.

Gorencas said the two powerful Asian economies will provide more than 50 percent of global growth in 2023.

The escalation of the war in Ukraine may lead to an increase in energy and food prices, as well as a cold winter next year, as Europe struggles to replenish gas stocks and competes with China for supplies of liquefied natural gas, the IMF said.

Despite the low overall inflation in many countries, early easing of financial conditions may make markets vulnerable to sudden re-quotes, if the core inflation readings fail to fall.