London, UK, 2025-09-20

A new study has painted a grim picture of the future health impacts of climate change, warning that wildfire smoke could cause more than 70,000 deaths in the United States each year by 2050. The research, published in the journal Nature, found that a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario could lead to a 73% increase in premature deaths from wildfire smoke. This would make smoke-related mortality one of the costliest and most critical consequences of a warming planet. The study highlights that the problem is not limited to the American West, as smoke plumes are now carrying dangerous fine particulate matter across the entire country.

The Deadly Link Between Smoke and PM2.5

The core of the problem lies in PM2.5, tiny particles found in smoke that are less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter. These particles are small enough to bypass the body’s natural defenses and travel deep into the lungs and even enter the bloodstream.

 * Health Impacts: According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), inhaling PM2.5 can lead to a range of health issues, including respiratory irritation, reduced lung function, and the exacerbation of pre-existing conditions like asthma and heart disease.

 * A “New” Threat: The study also found that wildfire smoke is in some ways more toxic than PM2.5 from other sources, such as fossil fuels, as it contains a mix of dangerous chemicals and heavy metals. Researchers warned that while heat-related deaths often get more attention, smoke is already killing many more Americans than rising temperatures.

States Most at Risk and Economic Costs

The study projects that while all U.S. communities are at risk from wildfire smoke, some states will face a significantly higher number of deaths than others.

 * Worst-Hit States: California is projected to see the largest increase in premature deaths, followed by New York, Washington, Texas, and Pennsylvania. This demonstrates how the effects of climate-driven wildfires in the West are now a nationwide problem, with smoke traveling thousands of miles to affect populations on the East Coast.

 * Economic Damages: The financial cost of these deaths is staggering. Researchers estimate that the annual excess deaths from wildfire smoke could result in yearly economic losses of over $608 billion by 2050. This amount would exceed the combined costs from all other climate-driven damages in the United States.

Global Impact and The Path Forward

The study on the U.S. is complemented by a second paper that examines the global health impacts of wildfire smoke.

 * A Global Crisis: The global study predicts that as many as 1.4 million people worldwide may die prematurely each year by the end of the century due to increased wildfires, a six-fold increase over current rates.

 * Disparities in Impact: The research highlights a significant disparity in the expected health burden, with Africa projected to be the worst affected continent. However, even with rapid emission cuts, deaths from climate-driven smoke exposure in the U.S. alone could still exceed 60,000 per year by 2050.

The new research serves as a stark warning to policymakers and the public, emphasizing the urgent need for a more aggressive approach to mitigating climate change and developing better public health strategies to protect citizens from the dangers of wildfire smoke.