Manila, Philippines / Taipei, Taiwan
A new climate attribution study has confirmed that Super Typhoon Ragasa, the strongest tropical cyclone of the year, was significantly intensified by human-driven climate change. The findings provide stark scientific evidence that the devastating impacts felt across the Philippines, Taiwan, and other parts of East Asia were worsened by a warming planet, making the storm “wetter, stronger, and more violent” than it would have been in the past.
The report, released by an international consortium of climate scientists, comes as authorities in both Manila and Taipei continue to grapple with the storm’s deadly aftermath, which has claimed at least 25 lives and caused widespread destruction through extreme winds, landslides, and flash floods.
Headline Points
* Human-Driven Amplification: The study concluded that present-day atmospheric conditions, shaped by greenhouse gas emissions, directly favoured a stronger and wetter storm.
* Wetter by 10%: Storms similar to Ragasa are now estimated to be up to 10% wetter locally due to higher air and sea temperatures.
* Warmer Seas Fuelled Rapid Intensification: Ragasa rapidly intensified into a Category 5-equivalent Super Typhoon atop sea surface temperatures that were 0.7^{\circ}C to 1.1^{\circ}C above average, an “exceptional” warmth made 10 to 40 times more likely by human-caused climate change.
* Philippines and Taiwan Devastated: Ragasa made landfall in the northern Philippines on September 22, before its core skirted the coast of Taiwan. The total death toll across the region includes at least 14 fatalities in Taiwan’s Hualien County after a barrier lake overflowed, and multiple deaths and injuries across the northern Philippine region of Luzon.
* Global Warming’s Clear Signal: Researchers stress that the findings unequivocally link the storm’s severity to global warming, demonstrating that “greenhouse gas emissions do far more than warm the world—they make typhoons wetter, stronger, and more violent.”
The Science Behind the Storm’s Fury
Super Typhoon Ragasa, which attained peak sustained winds of up to 270 km/h (165 mph) on September 22, brought life to a standstill across the region. The analysis confirms what many residents already suspected: the storm felt unprecedented.
According to researchers, the long-term changes in pressure, precipitation, and temperature are consistent with human-driven climate change. Warmer oceans act as fuel for tropical cyclones, allowing them to rapidly intensify and hold significantly more moisture.
A scientist involved in the study, Davide Faranda from the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), stated: “Some may try to dismiss this, but the science is clear. The devastating impacts of Ragasa show that greenhouse gas emissions do far more than warm the world—they make typhoons wetter, stronger, and more violent.”
A Trail of Devastation
In the Philippines, the storm prompted mass evacuations in the northern provinces and closed government offices and schools in the densely populated capital region of Manila, even though the core of the storm passed to the north. Nearly 700,000 people were affected in northern Luzon by the flooding and strong winds.
The storm’s fury was particularly evident in Taiwan, where heavy rainfall led to the catastrophic failure of a barrier lake in Hualien County. The resulting torrent of muddy water destroyed a bridge and turned roads in Guangfu township into raging rivers, tragically claiming multiple lives.
The conclusion of the study—that cyclones like Ragasa are becoming an established signature of a warmer world—serves as a grave warning to world leaders meeting to discuss the climate crisis, underscoring the urgent need for robust climate adaptation measures in vulnerable Asian nations.
