Seizure of South Yemen by UAE-Backed Forces Could Lead to Independence Claim
London, UK, December 9, 2025
Yemen’s New Divide: Seizure of South Yemen by UAE-Backed Forces Could Lead to Independence Claim, Unsettling Regional Alliances
Headline Points:
• UAE-Backed Forces of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) have completed the Seizure of South Yemen, controlling all eight former southern governorates.
• The military victory by the STC opens the door for a full and immediate Independence Claim, reverting Yemen to two separate states.
• The offensive was highly successful, seizing oil-rich Hadramaut and Mahrah governorates, which had previously been outside the STC’s control.
• The move risks upending regional alliances, potentially bringing the UAE into direct diplomatic conflict with its long-time partner, Saudi Arabia.
• The STC is expected to argue for a medium-term referendum on independence, though its future is entirely dependent on the strategic support of the UAE.
A critical and potentially irreversible shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Arabian Peninsula has occurred with the military Seizure of South Yemen by UAE-Backed Forces.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), which operates with the decisive backing of the United Arab Emirates, has consolidated control over all eight governorates that previously constituted the state of South Yemen.
This military conquest—the first time the STC has controlled the entirety of the south—has immediately raised the prospect of a formal Independence Claim, setting the stage for the formal dissolution of Yemen and the re-emergence of two separate states for the first time since the 1960s.
The STC’s military offensive was swift and highly successful. Over the past weeks, as many as 10,000 troops poured into the previously uncontrolled Hadramaut and Mahrah governorates.
These victories are strategically vital, as Hadramaut is oil-rich and Mahrah, bordering Oman, is a crucial corridor. The STC troops were seen equipped with advanced Emirati armoured vehicles and artillery, underscoring the decisive role of the UAE-Backed Forces in the operation.
The gains were so rapid that even neighbouring Oman was forced to temporarily close its border in reaction, demonstrating the immediate and profound regional impact of the seizure.
While a full and immediate declaration of statehood is considered a high-risk political move by analysts, the STC is now in a dominant position to push for a self-government framework and, eventually, a referendum on independence.
The STC’s political future, however, remains inextricably linked to the strategies and decisions of its primary sponsor, the UAE. This dependence adds a complex layer of regional politics to the independence question.
Crucially, the success of the UAE-Backed Forces threatens to upend regional alliances, most notably the fragile partnership between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh has traditionally backed the internationally recognized government of Yemen, which the STC has just displaced. The move by the UAE is seen as a potentially direct challenge to Saudi influence, complicating efforts to negotiate a lasting peace in the country’s north.
The long-term stability of the region now hangs on whether the STC can negotiate a sustainable path to independence without triggering a renewed conflict with northern factions and Saudi-aligned forces, cementing a massive and lasting realignment of power in the heart of the Arabian Peninsula.
