Philippines and China on collision course over disputed south china sea waters
Manila, Philippines/Beijing, China/London-UK, November 28 , 2025
ASIAN FLASHPOINT:
Joint US-Japan-Philippines Naval Drills Prompt Fierce Chinese Retaliation as Tensions at Second Thomas Shoal Threaten to Trigger Mutual Defense Treaty
The South China Sea has become the world’s most dangerous maritime flashpoint, with the Philippines and China On Collision Course Over Disputed South China Sea Waters following a dramatic escalation of military and paramilitary maneuvers in November 2025.
The core tensions, driven by China’s relentless push to assert sovereignty over almost the entire sea, have now drawn in the United States and Japan, raising the stakes to a level where a direct military confrontation—triggered by accident or miscalculation—is no longer a hypothetical possibility, but an immediate geopolitical risk.
The latest crisis was catalyzed by a major, highly publicised Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MMCA) conducted in mid-November. Philippine, US (including carrier movements), and Japanese naval and coast guard vessels conducted joint drills within Manila’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), explicitly challenging Beijing’s sweeping claims.
Simultaneously, the US deployed MQ-9A Reaper drones to the Philippines, providing around-the-clock intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities over the disputed waters.
This strategic reinforcement was seen by Beijing as a blatant act of provocation and a violation of its sovereignty, leading to a fierce diplomatic protest and a noticeable increase in the presence of Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia vessels near key flashpoints.
The Flashpoint: BRP Sierra Madre and the Red Line
The ultimate danger zone remains the Second Thomas Shoal (known in Manila as Ayungin Shoal).
This submerged reef lies within the Philippines’ 200-nautical-mile EEZ and is the site of the intentionally grounded naval vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre.
This rusting hulk serves as a constant, tangible military outpost for the Philippines. Manila’s routine resupply missions to the small contingent of marines aboard the Sierra Madre have become the primary focus of Chinese aggression.
In October 2025, resupply missions were met with the fiercest aggression yet, involving multiple water cannon attacks, aggressive ramming maneuvers, and the use of sophisticated laser devices against Philippine vessels.
These incidents caused structural damage and non-fatal injuries. While these acts fall just short of the traditional definition of armed attack, they are deliberately coercive. The Philippines has refused to withdraw its troops, while China vows to block every resupply, creating a dynamic where the next small collision could easily spiral out of control.
The US Mutual Defense Treaty and the Global Stakes
The crucial element
escalating the entire situation is the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). In response to the rising aggression, the Washington, D.C.-based US State Department and Pentagon have repeatedly and explicitly reaffirmed that Article IV of the MDT extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft—including those of its Coast Guard—anywhere in the South China Sea.
This confirmation effectively establishes a red line:
any sinking of a Philippine Coast Guard vessel or the loss of a Filipino life due to a direct Chinese aggressive act would, by treaty, compel a US military response, dragging the two global powers into the conflict.
China’s actions—its “salami-slicing” tactics involving harassment and collision—are a calculated gamble to advance its territorial claims without crossing this explicit red line, but the sheer volume of close encounters drastically increases the risk of a fateful miscalculation.
For the London-UK based CJ Global, the Manila/Beijing standoff is a test case for international maritime law and the rules-based order.
The region is home to one-third of global maritime trade and contains vast, contested natural resources. The increasing Chinese aggression, combined with the US-Japan-Philippines commitment to deterrence through forward deployment, has created a scenario of intense military brinkmanship.
The failure of regional bodies like ASEAN to present a unified diplomatic front only reinforces the conclusion that the dispute will ultimately be determined by the balance of military and political will, raising the spectre of a regional war over islands and rocks claimed by history and ambition.
Headline Points
• Collision Course:
Tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated dramatically due to repeated hostile actions, including ramming and water cannon attacks near the Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal.
• Trilateral Deterrence:
The US, Japan, and the Philippines conducted a major Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MMCA) in mid-November, along with the deployment of US MQ-9A Reaper drones, in a direct challenge to Beijing’s claims.
• MDT Trigger:
The US Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) has been explicitly reaffirmed to cover armed attacks on Philippine Coast Guard vessels anywhere in the South China Sea, creating a clear military red line for conflict.
• Geopolitical Risk:
The constant, aggressive close encounters between vessels pose a severe risk of a miscalculation or accident that could trigger the MDT and draw the United States into a conflict with China.
• Global Impact:
The dispute threatens global stability, as the South China Sea is a critical waterway for one-third of the world’s maritime trade.
