Reported By\Abeer Almadawy

 

      S ince 7 years Egypt complains from the the Ethiopian Dam that will cut off 3 quarters of the Egyptian Nile water…Egypt sees that the water of Nile is her historical right as well as her a necessity for the lives of the Egyptian people…No wonder to say that this great country is near to be thirsty at all, because most of its lands depend only the water of Nile…Egypt now takes about 50 Billion MC , but with the running of the Ethiopian Dam ,will deprived it from 35 Billion , so Nile of water which can reach to Egypt will be 12 to 15 Billion …what means that mostly its farmland will be a heath.

That’s Exactly what was said by the Egyptian scientist Professor Nader Nour Elddin. Who has written Quds Press with an article said in through that ;

the dam is going to decrease Egypt’s annual portion of water from River Nile by 12 billion cubic metres. Drought conditions in Lake Nasser are also likely, he added.

This will have the effect of making the water shortage in Egypt much worse, said Nour Elddin. As a result, all land reform and agricultural projects are likely to grind to a halt as water reserves fall. This will, he believes, have an inevitable negative impact on food supply.

Describing the dam as an “oppressive” move by Ethiopia, the academic claimed that its sole aim is to deprive Egypt of its portion of Nile water. He pointed out that the dam itself is liable to be damaged by the great floods which happen every 10 years or so. “This will cause a massive disaster in Sudan and Egypt.”

“This project consists of a series of four dams which are enough for 200 billion cubic metres of water in the Blue Nile,” explained Nour Elddin. “By accepting the Renaissance Dam, we automatically accept the other dams.” We have to ask what will remain for Egypt, he concluded.

From other side as the circle of discussion is running on and according to

the Egyptian president Abdel Fattah Sisi who called for rational dialogue between the Egyptian and Ethiopian scientists…An Ethiopian scientist loved to reply on Professor Nour Elddin and also send message to the Egyptians…

What ever is the message, let’s understand that every country has a right to live ..so any project can stand before this right, considering as bad act against human rights.The Egyptians have all the right to save their amount of water…and if there is a fair view a country with 100 Million and expected to be 150 million in 2030…it has all the right to have more amount of water , not only the same amount …but still water game is another plot.

however this is the reply the Ethiopian scientist  who said in Middle East Monitor …

In reply to a an article for Professor Nader Nouriddin’s, other Ethiopian  scientist  Semu Moges  who replied saying;

In my view is over-exaggeration of the scientific facts. I will dispute his claims point by point. There are several issues I would like to comment but I limit my comment on two scientific issues;


1. The professor claims that the Dam decreases Egypt’s annual portion of water from River Nile by 12 billion cubic meters. Drought conditions in Lake Nasser are also likely, he added.


– I agree the water volume at Aswan (Egypt) decreases during the initial filling phase of Ethiopian dam. Even if it decreases in volume, our scientific evidence indicates that the reduction will have little impact on the Egyptian agricultural water use. Aswan reservoir have the capacity and the resilience to absorb the temporary reduction of water flow from the Nile.

The dam holds twice the volume of the mean annual volume of flow such that 5 to 7 years flow reduction can effectively be accommodated. Once the dam is filled, there is little water retained in Ethiopia as annual flow from the Upper Blue Nile will still be maintained. Ethiopia’s interest from the dam is to produce as much energy as possible. This means as much possible water is released from the dam to cater for the annual energy need. Therefore, in the long term, Ethiopian dam doesn’t’ affect the total annual or long term volume of flow.

 

In fact there is scientific evidence, the delayed flood water in Ethiopia’s reservoir in summer and released slowly through out the year gains more water to downstream countries due to reduced evaporation (evaporation in Ethiopia is lower than Egypt).

Therefore, Ethiopian dam has little impact on food production in Egypt. Food supply for Egypt or for that matter for other countries has nothing to dam with Ethiopian or Egypt dam. This is simply preposterous intended for political consumption and appeasement. It doesn’t encourage the two countries to base their interpretation on scientific results and cooperation.

 

2. As he pointed out, the dam itself is liable to be damaged by the great floods which happen every 10 years or so. “This will cause a massive disaster in Sudan and Egypt.” 
- Scientifically speaking the spillway capacity of Ethiopian Dam (15,000 m3/s) is greater than the spillway capacity of Aswan dam (11,000 m3/sec) with less flood discharge at Ethiopian dam. Secondly, both Aswan Dam and Ethiopian Dam (major part) are concrete dams.

The technology of construction is by far better than 1960’s. So why is it that the dam built in Ethiopia dangerous than the dam built in Egypt. Both dams are built by foreign firms. This is simply out of touch from reality, as I said intended for political consumption.
In conclusion, I don’t claim the dam may not have some impact on downstream countries of Sudan and Egypt. But I strongly believe the impact is not beyond our shared management capacity or even responsible management capacity of Ethiopia. It is an issue worth discussing objectively and scientifically. If the countries work cooperatively and transparently, there are feasible alternative pathways (operational as well as management) that help both countries to use the shared water resources responsibly and happily.

We shouldn’t, in no position, disseminate perceptions and feelings as facts that drives wedge between the people of the two countries. Instead, we need to explore available and innovative scientific methods to save water, explore ways of maximizing water use and water productivity. Furthermore, I suggest Egypt’s scientists need to expand their horizon and explore for partial independence from the Nile Water. Too much dependence on the Nile Water alone leaves Egypt and all other Nile riparian countries vulnerable beyond 2050. There is simple no enough water available from one river alone.

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