The World Bank has lowered its forecasts for the growth of the economies of Arab countries in 2023, affected by the slowdown in the growth rate of the economies of oil-exporting countries, while raising its estimates for growth forecasts next year.

Edited by| Christian Megan

Economic  section -  CJ journalist 

Washington – June,6,2023

The bank estimated the growth of the economies of the Middle East and North Africa region at 2.2% this year, according to updated forecasts issued on Tuesday, compared to 3.5% in the previous estimates issued last January, which means a reduction of more than a third in the expected growth rate.

Expressed the bank's optimistic in the next year with the lifting of his address the expected economic growth for the region by about 0.6% to 3.3%, before slowing down again to 3% in 2025.

On the contrary, for the global economy has raised the international headquarters of its forecast for growth in global GDP this year to 2.1% from 1.7% in January, lower expectations for the year 2024 to 2.4% from 2.7%.

Expected that the rate of growth in oil-exporting countries to 2% in 2023, which is a significant reduction from the previous forecast, the Bank of international treaty recovery the 3.2% in 2024.

Represent the declared oil production in 2023, which is expected should be abolished time in 2024, a large part of the breeding expectations.

Was the oil-exporting countries in the alliance to "OPEC+" announced last April, at the reduced voluntary estimated at 1.16 million barrels per day as of May last until the end of the year, before the amendment to extend the reduction for the end of year 2024.

Reinforced Saudi Arabia, the rate of voluntary reduction of oil production by about a million barrels a day from the first of July next month renewable, bringing the rate of voluntary reduction of the Kingdom alone to 1.5 million barrels per day, where she participated in the voluntary reduction Coast which extends لـ2024 estimated at about 500 thousand barrels per day.

The kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the largest player in the region, the reduction of oil production will lead to a stagnation of industrial production and exports, with growth slowing from 8.7% in 2022 to 2.2% in 2023 and a contraction in the oil sector this year, before returning to growth at a rate of 3.3% in 2024, according to the World Bank report.

For other oil countries, it is expected that the Iraqi economy will shrink by 1.1% this year against previous growth forecasts of about 4% to be the owner of the largest reduction in expectations, in light of its contribution to the voluntary reduction of oil production within the "OPEC+" alliance and the cessation of Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports of 500 thousand barrels per day.

Oman was the author of the second place in the lower expectations of growth by 2.4 percentage points in the year. The bank expects the slowdown of the growth of the UAE to 2.8% against the growth of 7.9% in the past year.

Unlike the oil-producing countries that the bank raised its forecast for growth in their economies in the next year compared to signing him in January, countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco has seen a reduction in their growth projected for the current year and future also, where it is expected to grow the economy of Egypt at the rate of 4% in the current year and next, compared to 4.5 and 4.8% in the previous forecast.

Also the bank lowered the forecast of growth of the economy of Morocco in the current year from 3.5% to 2.5% and the expected growth rate of Tunisia from 3.3% to 2.3%.

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