London, UK, October 13, 2025
As the fragile peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea shatters under the weight of heightened geopolitical tensions. A dramatic escalation has been confirmed, with the Ethiopian government levying a formal, extraordinary accusation against its neighbour. Addis Ababa alleges that Asmara is orchestrating an ‘ACTIVE WAR PLOT’—an alarming claim that threatens to reignite a full-scale conflict in the region.
This deterioration of diplomatic relations is fundamentally rooted in the long-standing, existential dispute over RED SEA ACCESS, which Ethiopia desperately seeks and Eritrea steadfastly guards.
The core of Ethiopia’s allegation is detailed in a letter to the United Nations, signaling a move from internal rhetoric to formal international complaint and dramatically increasing the risk of another devastating conflict.
THE FORMAL ACCUSATION: ALLIANCE FORMED TO WAGE WAR
The explosive accusations were laid out in a formal letter dated October 2, 2025, from Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos to UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The letter claims that Eritrea is the “main architect” of a systematic plot to destabilize and fragment Ethiopia, using Addis Ababa’s legitimate quest for sea access as a “pretext” for its hostile actions.
The most severe accusation details a renewed military collaboration between Eritrea and a hardline faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—Ethiopia’s former adversary in the bloody 2020-2022 Tigray War. The Ethiopian government alleges that this alliance has been codenamed “Tsimdo” and is “actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia.” This development marks a complete reversal of the alliance that saw Eritrean forces fight alongside Ethiopian federal troops against the TPLF just a few years ago. The current split within the TPLF leadership is being strategically exploited by Asmara to foment a proxy conflict.
Proxy War Allegations
Beyond the alliance with a TPLF faction, the Ethiopian foreign minister’s letter details direct interference in Ethiopia’s internal conflicts. Specifically, Addis Ababa accuses the Eritrean government and its TPLF allies of “funding, mobilizing, and directing armed groups such as Fano”—an ethno-nationalist militia in the Amhara region—to expand the horizon of the conflict. The letter cites the recent offensive by the Fano militia to capture Woldiya, a major town in the Amhara region, as evidence of the alleged collusion and direct participation by Eritrean-backed TPLF commanders and fighters. Addis Ababa firmly asserts that these activities constitute a clear violation of the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement signed between the federal government and the TPLF.
THE ROOT CAUSE: THE RED SEA IMPERATIVE
The deepening crisis is underpinned by Ethiopia’s desperate need for Red Sea access. As a landlocked nation since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia relies almost entirely on the port of Djibouti, paying hundreds of millions of dollars yearly in port fees. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly and publicly described the need for sovereign access to the sea—specifically mentioning the lost ports of Assab and Massawa—as an existential matter for the country’s economic security and long-term stability.
Eritrea, however, views any discussion of its ports as an attack on its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Asmara has repeatedly condemned Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions as “misguided and outdated” rhetoric. In the Ethiopian foreign minister’s letter to the UN, Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea of using the sea access issue as a mere “pretext” to justify its years-long efforts to destabilize Ethiopia.
The current geopolitical climate in the Red Sea, a vital global shipping lane, adds another volatile layer. Eritrea has been notably strengthening its diplomatic and military ties with Ethiopia’s regional rival, Egypt, further complicating the standoff and raising the stakes for the entire region.
ASMARA’S RESPONSE AND MILITARY POSTURE
While Eritrea has yet to formally address the UN letter, previous statements by Asmara have dismissed Ethiopia’s accusations as “provocative sabre-rattling” and a clear attempt by Addis Ababa to justify future military aggression. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has consistently described Prime Minister Abiy’s ambition to secure a Red Sea port as the “plan of a crazy person,” clearly indicating the lack of willingness for a peaceful resolution on the matter.
However, reports from monitoring groups suggest that Eritrea has been actively rebuilding and fortifying its army, with some reports indicating border fortifications and a national military mobilisation. Ethiopia, in turn, has stated that its military maintains a “defensive posture” and has exercised “maximum restraint” but warned that its policy is “not one of indefinite restraint.” This hostile rhetoric and the reported military posturing on both sides of the border are ringing loud alarm bells among international observers who fear the 2018 peace deal has completely collapsed, making a new outbreak of hostilities seem increasingly probable.
International mediation is now urgently called for, as a renewed conflict between two of Africa’s largest and most heavily armed nations would undoubtedly end the historic rapprochement and trigger a humanitarian catastrophe in a region already ravaged by years of internal conflict and external shocks.
HEADLINE POINTS:
* WAR PLOT ACCUSATION: Ethiopia formally accused Eritrea of orchestrating an ‘Active War Plot’ in a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres on October 2, 2025.
* CORE ALLEGATION: Ethiopia alleges a military alliance, codenamed ‘Tsimdo,’ between the Eritrean government and a hardliner faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), with the intent to wage war.
* PROXY WAR: Eritrea is accused of funding and directing armed groups such as the Fano militia in the Amhara region to destabilise Ethiopia.
* RED SEA DISPUTE: The underlying tension is Ethiopia’s existential demand for sovereign Red Sea access, which Eritrea views as a violation of its sovereignty over ports like Assab and Massawa.
* ERITREAN STANCE: Asmara has dismissed Ethiopia’s claims as “provocative sabre-rattling” and is reportedly reinforcing its military positions along the border.
* RISK LEVEL: International analysts warn that the rising hostility and border military movements suggest the 2018 peace deal has failed, and a major regional conflict is now possible.
