Geneva, Switzerland / Washington, D.C., USA

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have issued urgent warnings that a developing La Niña climate event is poised to disrupt global weather patterns through late 2025 and into 2026. The phenomenon, marked by the cooling of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, could unleash a cascade of floods, droughts, food insecurity, and economic shocks across multiple continents.

Meteorologists caution that this La Niña may be unusually strong, following one of the hottest El Niño years on record in 2023–2024. The transition underscores the volatile extremes of a climate system increasingly destabilized by human-driven global warming.

What Is La Niña?

La Niña is the counterpart to El Niño, together forming the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. While El Niño tends to heat global temperatures and fuel storms, La Niña has the opposite effect—cooling parts of the Pacific but amplifying extreme weather elsewhere.

The WMO reports that ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have already dropped by 1.2°C below average, a hallmark of La Niña conditions. Atmospheric patterns, including strengthened trade winds and shifts in tropical rainfall, confirm the trend.

“La Niña is back, and it is intensifying,” said Dr. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the WMO. “What we are witnessing is not just a natural cycle, but one that interacts dangerously with human-induced climate change to magnify risks.”

Anticipated Global Impacts

The effects of La Niña vary across regions but are consistent enough for meteorologists to forecast broad patterns:

   •   South Asia: Increased risk of heavy monsoons and flooding in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

   •   Horn of Africa: Likely to face renewed drought, worsening food insecurity in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.

   •   Australia & Southeast Asia: Expect stronger cyclones and torrential rains, with potential infrastructure damage.

   •   North America: The U.S. Gulf Coast faces an above-average hurricane season, while the Pacific Northwest braces for wetter, stormier winters.

   •   South America: Argentina and southern Brazil may see drought, threatening soybean and corn harvests.

Already, early signs are emerging: flash floods in Indonesia, unusual storm activity off the Philippines, and prolonged dry spells in parts of East Africa.

Food Security Under Threat

Perhaps the gravest concern is food production. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that La Niña-driven drought in South America and Africa, combined with floods in Asia, could disrupt supply chains for major crops such as rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans.

“Global grain markets are already strained by conflict and inflation,” said Maria Hernandez, FAO climate analyst. “A severe La Niña will push millions more into hunger, particularly in regions already facing acute food insecurity.”

The World Food Programme estimates that up to 50 million people could be pushed into crisis-level hunger if harvests collapse in multiple breadbasket regions simultaneously.

Economic Fallout

Beyond agriculture, La Niña carries steep economic costs. Floods in Asia often destroy infrastructure and displace millions, while hurricanes battering the U.S. Gulf Coast threaten oil and gas supply chains.

Global insurers are bracing for another year of catastrophic weather claims, with Swiss Re projecting losses potentially exceeding US$200 billion if the strongest forecasts materialize.

“The volatility of ENSO events, supercharged by climate change, is a nightmare for economic planning,” noted Dr. Jonathan Meyers, a climate economist at Columbia University. “We are entering an era where climate shocks are not exceptions but constants.”

Science Meets Politics

The warnings come amid growing frustration among scientists that political leaders are not translating forecasts into preparedness. Despite decades of evidence, disaster readiness remains uneven.

In the Horn of Africa, governments lack resources to implement irrigation and food storage systems. In Southeast Asia, rapid urbanization has outpaced flood defenses. Even in wealthy nations, aging infrastructure leaves communities vulnerable to intensified storms.

The WMO and NOAA are urging governments to integrate climate risk into national planning, expand early-warning systems, and prioritize adaptation funding.

The Human Toll

Behind the statistics are millions of vulnerable lives. In Bangladesh, farmers along the Brahmaputra River brace for another season of floods that could wash away crops and homes. In Ethiopia, herders face the specter of another failed rainy season, threatening livestock survival.

“These events are not abstract,” said Amina Yusuf, a humanitarian worker in Mogadishu. “They mean children going hungry, families losing everything, and migration surging as people search for survival.”

Outlook: A Warning, Not a Fate

While La Niña is a natural climate driver, scientists emphasize that human choices will determine how severe the consequences become. Investments in resilient agriculture, early warning systems, and global cooperation can blunt the impacts.

“Preparedness saves lives,” stressed Dr. Sarah Kaplan, NOAA climate scientist. “We know La Niña is coming. The real question is whether we act on that knowledge or let another cycle of disaster unfold.”

As the world edges deeper into an era of climate extremes, La Niña serves as both a meteorological reality and a political metaphor: nature’s warning that delay is no longer an option.