The energy war continues to be a defining and destructive front in the conflict, with Ukraine intensifying its long-range drone strikes on Russian oil and gas plants, successfully targeting facilities deep within Russian territory.
These escalating attacks aim to cripple the Kremlin’s war funding and logistics, a move mirrored by Russia’s ongoing bombardment of Ukraine’s critical power grid as winter approaches.
Ukrainian Drones Hit Major Gas Plant and Refinery
The most significant recent attacks, occurring on the night of October 18-19, targeted crucial energy infrastructure in the Samara and Orenburg oblasts of southern Russia.
• Orenburg Gas Processing Plant Hit:
Ukrainian drones struck the massive Orenburg natural gas processing plant, reportedly one of the largest gas and chemical complexes globally. The attack caused a fire and reportedly damaged one of its gas processing and purification units, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
• International Impact:
The strike immediately impacted international energy flows. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry reported that the facility, operated by Gazprom, was forced to temporarily suspend its intake of gas from Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak field due to the emergency.
Industry sources indicated this subsequently forced Kazakhstan to reduce production at the Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field by 25% to 30%.
• Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery Damaged:
A separate, confirmed drone strike hit the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in the Samara region. Ukraine’s military reported that the attack sparked a blaze and caused damage to the main refining units of the facility, which is operated by Rosneft and processes millions of tonnes of crude oil annually.
These deep-strike operations follow earlier successful Ukrainian attacks in October, including strikes on the Feodosia oil terminal in occupied Crimea. Satellite imagery confirmed significant damage to multiple fuel tanks there after strikes on October 6, 7, and 13. Analysts from Frontelligence Insight noted that the damage to the oil terminal appears substantial, and repairs will likely be difficult.
Impact on Russia’s Home Front and War Economy
The sustained Ukrainian air offensive, which significantly intensified in August and September 2025, has started to have tangible effects on the Russian domestic economy and war machine.
• Fuel Shortages and Price Spikes:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the impact from the drone strikes will likely suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026.
The relentless targeting of sensitive refining units, such as crude distillation towers, has led to costly unplanned maintenance, delays in restarts, and a significant drop in domestic refining output.
This has resulted in a reported 10% drop in refining throughput since the attacks began, forcing the Russian government to ban gasoline exports in an attempt to ease domestic shortages. Reports suggest a growing number of Russian drivers are noticing gasoline price increases and supply issues not seen since the early 1990s.
• Export Revenue Reduction:
With over 20 major refineries hit, Reuters calculations estimate that recent strikes have cut Russia’s refining capacity by 17%. As Russia’s economy relies heavily on energy exports for war funding, the reduced fuel production capacity directly translates to lower export volumes and a contraction of Moscow’s available financial resources.
Russia’s Retaliatory Attacks on Ukrainian Energy
While Ukraine targets the Russian economy, Russia maintains its brutal strategy of weaponising winter by continuously striking Ukraine’s energy grid.
• Blackouts in Ukraine:
Russian forces have been launching massive barrages of drones and missiles against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.
Officials in Kyiv have accused Russia of using repeated strikes on the same target to hit emergency repair crews. These attacks have caused blackouts in multiple regions and damaged natural gas and power grid infrastructure, with one recent barrage alone launching over 300 drones and dozens of missiles.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant:
Meanwhile, the energy front also saw a rare moment of cooperation, as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that Ukrainian and Russian forces had agreed to a localized ceasefire to repair damaged powerlines leading to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) after a month-long outage.
The restoration of off-site power is deemed crucial for the nuclear facility’s safety and security.
Headline Points
• Orenburg Plant Disrupted:
Ukrainian drones caused a fire and damage at the massive Orenburg natural gas processing plant in southern Russia on October 19, forcing it to suspend the intake of gas from Kazakhstan.
• Novokuibyshevsk Hit:
A separate drone strike damaged the main refining units of the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in the Samara region.
• Economic Impact Deepens:
Ukraine’s campaign is causing significant domestic fuel shortages and is projected by the IEA to suppress Russia’s refining rates until mid-2026, directly hitting the Kremlin’s war funding.
• Crimea Oil Terminal Degraded:
Strikes earlier in October, on the 6th, 7th, and 13th, caused significant damage to multiple fuel tanks at the Feodosia oil terminal in occupied Crimea.
* Russia Targets Ukraine’s Grid: Concurrently, Russia continues its intense aerial bombardment of Ukraine’s power grid, causing widespread blackouts as cold weather approaches.
• ZNPP Ceasefire:
Russian and Ukrainian forces agreed to a local ceasefire to allow repairs to power lines at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) after its longest-ever outage.
