Tigray – August 26, 2025

A Fragile Peace Shatters as Tensions Mount in Tigray

A new and devastating chapter of conflict is reportedly on the horizon in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, just over two years after a peace deal was signed to end a brutal civil war. According to recent reports, the Ethiopian federal government is deploying mechanized units and heavy military equipment towards the region, a move that has escalated already soaring tensions and raised fears of a renewed large-scale confrontation.

The deployment comes amid escalating political and security tensions within the Tigray region itself. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is embroiled in an internal power struggle with the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), which was appointed by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as part of the 2022 peace agreement. This internal division has led to violent clashes, with a breakaway faction of the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), now calling itself the Tigray Peace Force (TPF), accusing TPLF-aligned forces of seizing control of key areas and clashing with civilians.

Headlines of the Report

 * Federal Troop Movements: The Ethiopian federal government is reportedly moving mechanized units and heavy military equipment to the Tigray region, raising the specter of a full-scale military confrontation.

 * Internal Factionalism: A deepening power struggle within Tigray’s political leadership is fueling the crisis, with rival factions of the TPLF clashing and undermining the fragile peace.

 * Violation of Peace Deal: The continued presence of Eritrean forces in parts of Tigray, in violation of the 2022 peace agreement, is a major source of tension and a key obstacle to a lasting settlement.

 * Threat of Regional War: Analysts warn that a renewed conflict in Tigray could rapidly escalate into a wider regional war involving Eritrea and other regional actors.

 * Humanitarian Crisis Looms: A return to fighting would be devastating for a population still reeling from the last war, with an estimated one million people remaining internally displaced and reliant on humanitarian aid.

The current crisis is a direct result of the incomplete implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement. Key components of the deal, such as the disarmament of Tigrayan forces and the full withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces from the region, have not been fully realized. The continued occupation of contested areas, particularly in Western Tigray, has left a significant portion of the region and its population unsettled, with many internally displaced persons (IDPs) unable to return to their homes.

The humanitarian situation, which was already precarious, is expected to deteriorate further if conflict reignites. The previous war devastated the region’s infrastructure, particularly its healthcare system. Hospitals were damaged or destroyed, and medical supplies were depleted, leaving a population with immense medical needs and a healthcare system that is unable to cope. A return to fighting would halt the flow of what little aid is getting in and would put millions of lives at risk, a devastating blow to a region that has already endured so much.