Dangerous Escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli Border Ahead of UNIFIL Withdrawal: Beirut Calls for an “International Mission” to Prevent Security Collapse
London, United Kingdom – December 6, 2025
Dangerous Escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli Border Ahead of UNIFIL Withdrawal
In rapidly escalating developments that further destabilize the regional security landscape, the Lebanese-Israeli border is witnessing an unprecedented and dangerous escalation since the fragile ceasefire agreement of November 2024.
Israeli threats to expand attacks if Hezbollah is not disarmed are met with near-daily airstrikes targeting suspected Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, bringing the specter of a full-scale confrontation closer than ever.
This escalating tension coincides with the approaching deadline set by the Security Council for ending the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), prompting the Lebanese leadership to formally call for an international alternative to fill the looming security vacuum.
These recent developments on the Lebanese-Israeli border reflect the depth of the crisis gripping the Middle East.
While diplomatic efforts sought to establish a semblance of temporary stability, reports from the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation confirmed that military escalation had become “inevitable” unless Beirut fully implemented UN Security Council Resolution 1701, particularly regarding the issue of illegal weapons south of the Litani River.
Although direct negotiations between the two sides, sponsored by the United States, took place in recent days, ostensibly focused on economic cooperation and reconstruction, these negotiations appear to be a desperate attempt to contain the slide toward a wider conflict, given Israel’s insistence on continuing its airspace violations and its occupation of five locations within Lebanese territory.
The most significant development in the southern security situation is the UN resolution concerning UNIFIL.
In August 2025, the Security Council adopted a resolution extending the mandate of the interim force for the last time until the end of December 2026, to be followed by a phased and orderly withdrawal plan during 2027.
This resolution, which came under US and Israeli pressure, ended decades of a presence that, despite criticism, had served as an international mechanism for disengagement and protection of the Blue Line.
The expiration of UNIFIL’s mandate on a specific date poses an existential challenge to Lebanese security, especially given the government’s apparent inability to fully extend its sovereignty over the south.
In response to this impending vacuum, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in intensive meetings with a delegation of representatives from the Security Council member states, called for the formation of a supportive “international mission” of a different nature to replace UNIFIL.
Salam proposed that this force operate under the auspices of the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) or be a limited-sized force similar to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan Heights, with the aim of bolstering stability and supporting the Lebanese army.
The stated objective of this “international mission” is to assist the Lebanese army in implementing its plan to deploy 10,000 troops south of the Litani River, a move intended to reduce Hezbollah’s armed influence, despite the party’s public rejection of any plan to “disarm” it.
In conclusion, the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border stands at a dangerous crossroads. Caught between the threat of escalation brandished by Israel and the departure of UNIFIL, which leaves a military vacuum, Lebanon finds itself compelled to seek a new international “safety valve.”
Lebanon’s success in establishing an alternative “international mission” or expanding the mandate of the US-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism could represent the last lifeline to avert a war that could be devastating for the entire region, at a time when concerns are growing that the current negotiations are merely a prelude to redrawing the map of influence by force.
Key Points in the Report:
Current Escalation:
Increasing Israeli threats of a large-scale attack on Lebanon and the continuation of daily airstrikes despite the fragile ceasefire agreement signed in November 2024.
# Ending UNIFIL:
The Security Council approves in August 2025 the complete termination of UNIFIL’s mission by the end of December 2026, with a withdrawal plan beginning in 2027.
# Lebanese Demand:
The Lebanese Prime Minister calls for an “international mission” to replace UNIFIL (modeled on UNTSO or UNDOF) to fill the security vacuum and support the Lebanese army.
# Military Plan:
The Lebanese plan includes deploying 10,000 army soldiers south of the Litani River to reinforce state sovereignty.
# Direct Negotiations:
Despite the escalation, Lebanon and Israel hold their first round of direct negotiations (December 3, 2025) under US auspices, focusing on economic issues as a prelude to de-escalation.
