OPEC+ confirms crude oil production levels will remain until end of 2026
London, UK, December 1, 2025
In a critical decision that sends a powerful signal of caution to the global energy market, the OPEC+ alliance has formally confirms crude oil production levels will remain until end of 2026, opting for stability amid mounting fears of an unprecedented supply glut.
The coalition, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia, convened a series of virtual meetings that concluded with an agreement to suspend a planned increase in output for the first quarter of 2026 and to keep existing, deeper cuts—representing millions of barrels per day—in place until end of 2026.
This strategic pause is a direct response to bearish forecasts from international agencies, which predict global oil supply will significantly outpace demand next year, potentially driving prices to unsustainable lows for producer nations.
The OPEC+ confirms crude oil production levels will remain in a status quo, largely defensive position. The alliance is navigating a complex landscape defined by record-high non-OPEC supply (particularly from the United States and Brazil), slowing global demand growth, and geopolitical uncertainties, including the potential for increased Russian supply should peace talks in Ukraine advance.
By holding output steady, the 23-nation bloc aims to prevent a significant collapse in oil prices, which have already fallen by approximately 15% this year, trading near $63 per barrel in London.
The decision underscores the group’s commitment to market management, even as it signals deep concern about the stability of the global oil price environment heading into the new year.
Headline Points
Decision to Hold Steady:
OPEC+ ratified its current output policy, specifically pausing the gradual increase in production by eight key members (including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Russia) for the first three months of 2026.
Long-Term Cuts Extended:
The broader agreement to maintain the core 2 million barrels per day (bpd) production cut, initially agreed upon in 2022, will remain in effect through the end of 2026.
Rationale: Avoiding Glut:
The primary reason for the cautious approach is to mitigate a projected global supply surplus in 2026, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts could reach over 4 million bpd, the largest glut since 2020.
New Baseline Mechanism:
The group approved a technical mechanism to assess and update member countries’ maximum sustainable production capacities throughout 2026, a critical step for setting fairer, more stable quotas from 2027 onwards.
Price Support Insufficient:
Despite the decision, oil markets remained largely underwhelmed, with prices only seeing minor support, reflecting the deeper concerns about booming non-OPEC supply and softening global economic growth.
The core of the OPEC+ decision rests on a clear desire for price stability.
The alliance is currently implementing a series of cuts that total approximately 5.8 million barrels per day—a significant share of global demand—designed to prop up the market.
By formally announcing that crude oil production levels will remain largely unchanged through the end of 2026, the group has provided long-term visibility but has also implicitly conceded that the market is too fragile to absorb any significant additional supply at this time.
The decision to pause the gradual unwinding of a separate 1.65 million bpd cut, which was planned to continue into the first quarter of 2026, buys the group time to assess fluctuating economic data and the highly volatile geopolitical risks.
A major driver of the group’s concern is the surging supply from non-OPEC nations, particularly the continued, technology-driven boom in US shale oil and robust output from nations like Guyana and Brazil.
This non-OPEC supply has grown faster than expected, neutralizing OPEC+’s efforts to control prices and recapture market share.
The alliance is struggling to balance the competing needs of its members: some, like Saudi Arabia, prioritize higher revenues through tighter supply and higher prices, while others, like the UAE, have invested heavily in boosting capacity and seek higher production quotas to maximize their output.
The technical agreement approved during the meeting to establish a new mechanism for assessing members’ maximum production capacity is a crucial diplomatic breakthrough.
This capacity assessment will be conducted by independent, external firms throughout 2026 and is intended to resolve long-standing internal disputes over production quotas that have previously caused friction (such as Angola’s exit from OPEC in 2024).
This process is vital for laying the groundwork for more equitable and realistic production targets after 2026.
Economically, the decision to maintain lower production levels helps to dampen the prospect of further severe oil price deflation, thereby stabilizing revenues for producer states.
However, the market’s muted reaction suggests traders had already priced in this conservative outcome. The consensus in major financial houses is that even with OPEC+’s ongoing cuts, the global market is set for an oversupply, which will continue to pressure prices.
The alliance’s move is a clear defensive play, signaling that their primary focus for the near future is market preservation and internal cohesion rather than an aggressive return to full capacity.
The success of this policy to maintain price support will ultimately hinge on the robustness of global demand and whether non-OPEC producers continue to accelerate their output unchecked.
