DRC and Rwanda on brink of all-out conflict as m23 rebels consolidate control

DRC and Rwanda on brink of all-out conflict as m23 rebels consolidate control

Goma, DRC/Kigali, Rwanda/London-UK, November 28, 2025

GREAT LAKES CRISIS:

Failure of June Peace Deal Pushes DR Congo and Rwanda Closer to War as M23’s Consolidation Triggers 7.8 Million-Person Humanitarian Catastrophe

The volatile situation in Central Africa’s Great Lakes region has reverted to its pre-diplomacy worst, placing the DRC and Rwanda on Brink of All-Out Conflict Over M23 Rebel Activity.

Despite a major US-brokered peace agreement signed in June 2025, the terms requiring Rwandan troop withdrawal have been ignored, allowing the M23 rebels—a group universally condemned by the UN and Western powers as being supported by the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF)—to Consolidate Control over a vast, mineral-rich swathe of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The failure of diplomacy has unleashed a fresh wave of violence, deepening a humanitarian crisis that has now displaced a catastrophic 7.8 million people across the country.

The recent escalation in late 2025 follows the expiry of the 90-day deadline established by the Washington Peace Agreement signed between Kinshasa and Kigali.

That deal aimed to de-escalate tensions by committing Rwanda to withdraw its military forces from eastern DRC and the DRC to cease support for the Hutu rebel group, the FDLR.

However, as of late November, DRC intelligence and international monitors confirm that Rwandan troops have not withdrawn.

Instead, the M23 has leveraged this military backing to cement its territorial gains, including the strategic cities of Goma and Bukavu, seized during a major offensive earlier this year.

Reports from the region, including fighting as recent as November 21, indicate that the M23 is now operating a parallel administration in occupied North and South Kivu, levying taxes and seizing resources, a move the DRC government views as an illegal fragmentation and an act of war.

The Engine of the Conflict: Minerals and Territory

The underlying cause of the relentless conflict is the control of the eastern DRC’s unparalleled mineral wealth.
The occupied territories are rich in cobalt, lithium, coltan, and gold—all critical raw materials for modern electronics and the global green energy transition.

UN investigations and media reports consistently assert that the M23 group, through illegal taxation, resource extraction, and forced labour, generates massive revenue streams, estimated to be hundreds of thousands of dollars per month from coltan alone.

The DRC government and regional observers accuse Rwanda of using the M23 as a proxy force to secure access to these lucrative mining territories, a charge Kigali fiercely denies, instead claiming its intervention is necessary to counter the threat posed by the FDLR.

This proxy war has resulted in a devastating human cost that defines the current crisis. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) confirms that over 7.8 million people are now internally displaced within the DRC, representing the largest displacement crisis in Africa.

Of these, over 5.2 million are concentrated in the conflict-ridden eastern provinces, with 1.6 million uprooted in 2025 alone.

Humanitarian Catastrophe and Regional Isolation

The displaced populations are crammed into desperately overcrowded camps, particularly around Goma, where they face extreme vulnerability.

The crisis is characterized by soaring rates of conflict-related sexual violence, severe food insecurity, and the widespread threat of disease, including cholera and measles, due to a severe lack of clean water and sanitation.

Humanitarian agencies have struggled to gain sustained access, with camps and aid convoys frequently coming under artillery fire, underscoring the breakdown of all protection mechanisms.

The international response, while unified in its condemnation of the violence, has proven functionally paralyzed.

The United Nations Security Council has passed resolutions calling on Rwanda to cease support for M23 and withdraw its troops, yet these demands have had no discernible effect on the ground.

Regional efforts by blocs like the East African Community (EAC) have largely failed, leaving the DRC to rely on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission, which is currently struggling to stem the M23’s advances.

From the perspective of London-UK, the DRC-Rwanda tension is an escalating regional crisis with global implications for the supply chain of critical minerals.

As the M23 continues to consolidate its military and administrative control over the resource-rich Kivus, the potential for a full-scale, direct military clash between the DRC and Rwandan armies remains terrifyingly high.

The failed peace process has only served to embolden the M23, pushing the Great Lakes region closer to a devastating conflict that could engulf neighbouring states, adding a new, intractable layer to Africa’s most enduring conflict.

Headline Points

Peace Deal Failure:

The June 2025 Washington Peace Agreement, requiring Rwandan troop withdrawal from the DRC within 90 days, has stalled, with Rwanda failing to comply by the November deadline.

M23 Consolidation:

The M23 rebel group, backed by the Rwandan military, has capitalized on the stalled peace to consolidate control over vast, mineral-rich territories in North and South Kivu, including the strategic cities of Goma and Bukavu.

Humanitarian Crisis:

The conflict has triggered a severe humanitarian catastrophe, with over 7.8 million people now internally displaced across the DRC, the highest number in Africa.

Geopolitical Stakes:

The proxy conflict is fundamentally driven by the control of massive deposits of cobalt, coltan, and lithium, which are essential for the global technology and energy sectors.

Wider Conflict Risk:

The continued presence of Rwandan troops and the M23’s parallel administration significantly increase the risk of a direct, all-out military confrontation between the two neighbouring states.