US stocks indices registered a slight rise in Wall Street trading, as the tech giant’s momentum continued to lead the market.
This rise was supported by positive signs regarding the growth of artificial intelligence (AI), reflecting continued investor confidence in companies at the forefront of this technological revolution.
US stocks witnesses caution
It continues rising by the technology sector , While witnessing a state of cautious optimism due to strong earnings results from chip companies, the energy and commodities markets (global and Arab) face a more complex landscape, with conflicting expectations between oversupply and the risks of geopolitical unrest.
The interplay between the “AI boom” in the West and the volatility of commodity markets in the Middle East is shaping the global economy for 2025.
First: US Stock Indices and AI Momentum
US stock indices have seen a significant rise, particularly the Nasdaq Composite Index, which includes the majority of technology companies, supported by better-than-expected financial results and signs of continued growth in demand for AI products.
1. Positive Indices Performance:
- • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded slight gains, with the S&P 500 rising by about 0.3% and the Nasdaq by about 0.5%, reflecting a general positive trend in recent trading.
• Performance was primarily supported by the stocks of major technology companies directly benefiting from the AI wave, which continued to exceed expectations, justifying their high valuations.
2. Growth Engine: AI Companies:
• Shares of companies such as NVIDIA, a giant manufacturer of graphics processing units (GPUs), the backbone of AI servers, have seen strong gains. Some investment banks also raised their recommendations for the company’s stock.
• Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) continue to lead in cloud computing and AI applications, and their shares have seen continued support from Wall Street’s confidence in their long-term growth strategies.
• The strongest support came from the earnings results of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a major supplier of chips to AI companies.
The company reported a nearly 40% jump in third-quarter earnings and raised its 2025 revenue forecast to mid-30s (around 35%), indicating that demand for AI infrastructure is still in its infancy.
• The announcement by companies like Nvidia of plans to build AI computer manufacturing plants in the US adds further confidence in future revenue streams.
3. Existing Challenges:
• Despite the upward trend, Wall Street’s VIX remains at relatively high levels (above 20), indicating expectations of near-term market volatility and disruption, driven by anticipation of Federal Reserve decisions and the earnings season.
Second: Energy and Commodities Market Outlook (Global and Arab)
The energy and commodities sector faces uncertainty, with conflicting global forecasts regarding the path of prices in 2025.
1. Oil Prices:
Conflict between Surplus and Geopolitics:
• Surplus Forecasts: Some research houses and the International Energy Agency are forecasting a significant surplus in the oil market in 2025, putting downward pressure on prices.
The World Bank expects Brent crude to average $64 per barrel this year and decline to $60 next year due to abundant supplies and the growth of electric vehicles.
Current trading data indicates that Brent crude is trading around $62.01 for December 2025 contracts.
• Stable/Upward Outlook:
Conversely, some analysts and OPEC+ believe demand will be strong and expect Brent crude prices to stabilize in the $70-$85 per barrel range. Fitch Ratings has raised its forecast for Brent crude prices to $70 per barrel in the short term due to geopolitical risks.
• OPEC+ Factor: OPEC+ decisions, particularly regarding the gradual unwinding of agreed-upon cuts, remain the decisive factor in determining price trajectory.
2. Natural Gas and Other Commodities:
• Natural Gas: Natural gas prices are expected to experience volatility, as strong US production keeps prices relatively stable, while demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Europe and Asia increases upward pressure.
• Gold: Gold is likely to reach a new record high in 2025, as investors seek safe havens amid growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical and trade tensions.
3. The Arab Energy Landscape:
• Arab oil and gas exporting economies, particularly in the Gulf, remain vulnerable to price fluctuations.
• Low prices may put pressure on budgets, while rising prices offer greater opportunities to finance economic diversification projects (as is the case in Qatar, where companies have reported healthy profits despite market volatility).
• In Egypt, figures indicate stability in domestic fuel prices (gasoline and diesel), according to the latest reviews of the Automatic Pricing Committee.
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Key News Points
• Technology Lead: The Nasdaq Composite Index leads US stocks higher, supported by confidence in the growth of the artificial intelligence sector.
• Chip Earnings: Strong earnings from TSMC support the technology sector and confirm continued record demand for AI chips.
• Oil Conflict: Oil price forecasts for 2025 diverge between the World Bank and the International Energy Agency’s forecasts of a declining surplus and OPEC+’s forecasts of strong demand.
• Gold as a Safe Haven: Gold is expected to reach record levels amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
• Global Volatility: Commodity markets, including gas and metals, are poised for further volatility under pressure from supply and demand dynamics and trade risks.
