Written by| Dr,Abeer Almadawy – (political analyst)

London-UK, October 5, 2025

The unveiling of US President Donald Trump’s comprehensive 20-point peace plan to end the devastating, two-year conflict in Gaza, Palestine/Israel, has been met with a fervent mixture of international relief and deep geopolitical apprehension. While the plan offers the first credible pathway to ending hostilities and securing the release of hostages, its ambitious promise—to shepherd the region towards a demilitarised Gaza free from Israeli occupation and governed by its own citizens—is fraught with political peril. The very success of this plan is now inextricably linked to the personal ambition of President Trump himself, who publicly seeks the Nobel Peace Prize, raising the question of whether a Middle East triumph can eclipse mounting international concerns, including the crisis in Europe.

The Path to Peace: A Study in Contradictions

The Trump plan mandates four core objectives: an immediate, unconditional ceasefire; the full, swift release of all remaining Israeli hostages; the disarmament and political neutralisation of Hamas; and the establishment of a transitional governance body. Its initial success hinges on the urgent humanitarian need for a pause in fighting, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. Both Israeli and Hamas leaderships have shown a willingness to engage in the initial stages, but the long-term vision exposes profound political fractures.

Will Israel Approve All Required Steps? The Security Barrier

The greatest challenge to the plan’s ultimate success is Israel’s commitment to a full, staged military withdrawal, which is crucial for Gaza to achieve genuine self-governance. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear that a full withdrawal from Gaza is not guaranteed; his government insists on retaining a permanent security perimeter and operational control over a buffer zone, arguing that a complete military vacuum would invite renewed threats. This security-first prerequisite fundamentally contradicts the plan’s goal of ending the occupation and ensuring that “Gaza’s citizens will govern it.” Israel’s approval of the initial steps is high, but approval of the final steps remains critically low, particularly under pressure from domestic hardline factions who oppose any concessions towards Palestinian self-determination.

The Future of the Palestinian Cause After Hamas

The plan decisively excludes Hamas from any post-conflict political role, envisioning a transitional authority run by a technocratic and apolitical Palestinian committee, overseen by an international “Board of Peace” headed by President Trump and including former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.

 * Legitimacy Deficit: For many Palestinians, this arrangement risks replacing one form of control (Hamas) with a foreign-backed, neocolonial administration. The Palestinian cause, historically centred on self-determination, would face a severe legitimacy crisis, having bypassed democratic endorsement to install a governing body viewed as favouring Israeli security interests.

 * The Blair ‘What If’: If Israel insists on a strong executive role for an international figure like Tony Blair, his perceived alignment with Israeli policies would further undermine the new administration’s standing among the Palestinian populace, severely fracturing the national cause’s coherence.

Donald Trump, the Nobel Prize, and the European Crisis

President Trump has consistently linked his foreign policy achievements to his ambition for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing the successful resolution of seven global conflicts. The Gaza peace plan represents the potential “eighth” such achievement.

Can Gaza Triumph Aid the Nobel Bid?

The immediate de-escalation of the Gaza conflict—securing a massive hostage release and ending the war—would undeniably mark a monumental diplomatic victory, significantly boosting President Trump’s standing as a global peacemaker. However, Nobel observers and experts in Oslo remain sceptical.

 * Sustained Effort Criterion: The Nobel Committee historically rewards sustained, multilateral efforts and a philosophy of diplomacy, contrasting with the often transactional and unilateral nature of the President’s approach. Experts widely dismiss his chances as a “long shot,” regardless of the Gaza outcome, citing his disregard for multilateral institutions and a political rhetoric that does not align with the spirit of the prize.

The Crisis in Europe Context

The President’s focus on the Middle East peace plan comes at a time when US engagement with the ongoing security and economic crises in Europe remains a central global concern. A successful, albeit partial, resolution in Gaza could strategically shift the global media narrative, allowing the President to project an image of effective, high-stakes diplomacy. While a Gaza triumph does not solve the European crisis, it provides powerful political leverage by:

 * Reasserting US Leadership: It re-establishes the US as the indispensable broker of last resort, a position that may influence future European security negotiations.

 * Creating a Positive Legacy: It generates a positive foreign policy legacy that can counter domestic and international criticism regarding his stance on European alliances, such as NATO.

In essence, while the Gaza plan will not directly resolve Europe’s deep-seated security challenges, its success would offer President Trump a formidable diplomatic shield and a compelling narrative to shape his global perception—a narrative he believes should culminate in the Nobel Peace Prize. The path is set for a historic ceasefire, but the final liberation of Gaza and the prize on the global stage remain profoundly difficult to secure.

Headline Points

 * Gaza Ceasefire Imminent but Fragile: Both Israel and Hamas have signalled conditional acceptance of the 20-point plan’s initial phase, which focuses on an immediate ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner/hostage exchange, driven by overwhelming humanitarian necessity.

 * Israel’s Security Conditions are a Barrier: The ultimate success of a full Israeli withdrawal is jeopardised by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s insistence on maintaining an indefinite security perimeter and a buffer zone, directly opposing the plan’s goal of ending the occupation.

 * Post-Hamas Governance Lacks Legitimacy: The proposed transitional government, led by Palestinian technocrats and overseen by a “Board of Peace” including President Trump and Tony Blair, risks being widely viewed by Palestinians as a foreign, neo-colonial imposition.

 * Tony Blair’s Role is Polarising: An insistence on a central governing role for Mr. Blair would likely undermine the credibility of the new administration in the eyes of the Palestinian population, jeopardising its local acceptance.

 * Trump’s Nobel Bid is a ‘Long Shot’: While the Gaza peace plan provides a high-profile diplomatic opportunity, Nobel experts say the President’s chances remain slim, citing the committee’s preference for sustained, multilateral efforts over quick, transactional diplomatic victories.

 * Gaza Success Offers Political Leverage: Resolving the conflict in Gaza would offer President Trump a powerful, positive global narrative to counter criticism related to his foreign policy positions, including those concerning the escalating crisis in Europe.