New York , USA| September 24, 2025
UN Report: Geopolitical Tensions and Rising Costs Stall Maritime Trade Growth
A new report from the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) agency, “The Review of Maritime Transport 2025,” has issued a stark warning that global maritime trade is facing “stormy seas.” The report highlights a significant slowdown in growth, rising costs, and unprecedented uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and new environmental regulations. For the first time in decades, the arteries of global commerce are experiencing prolonged disruption, forcing companies to reroute and re-evaluate their supply chains.
Headline Points
* Global maritime trade growth is expected to stall in 2025, with UNCTAD forecasting a minimal rise of just 0.5% in trade volumes, a sharp decline from the previous year.
* Geopolitical tensions are forcing shipping companies to reroute vessels on longer, more expensive voyages, notably around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid conflict zones in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
* Rising costs and volatility in freight rates are hitting vulnerable economies the hardest, as higher shipping costs quickly translate into more expensive imports and increased food insecurity.
* The report calls for a “just transition” to a greener and more digital maritime sector, but warns that this transformation will come with “significant costs” for fleet renewal and new infrastructure.
The Perfect Storm of Challenges
The UNCTAD report paints a picture of a maritime sector in flux. Rebeca Grynspan, the Secretary-General of UNCTAD, noted that the industry is navigating a “new normal” of geopolitical volatility. The Red Sea crisis, which began in late 2023, has forced many vessels to abandon the shorter Suez Canal route in favor of the much longer journey around the southern tip of Africa. This rerouting has added thousands of kilometers and millions of dollars in fuel costs to each voyage, disrupting global supply chains and highlighting their fragility.
The report also points to new trade policies, including those recently implemented by the United States, that are disrupting established trade flows. The imposition of new tariffs and port fees has already led to further rerouting and increased costs for businesses, with a full understanding of the long-term impacts yet to be seen.
Costs and Vulnerability
The consequences of this disruption are not felt equally across the globe. While larger, more diversified economies can better absorb the shock of higher freight costs, the report warns that the most vulnerable nations are paying the heaviest price.
Small island developing states, least developed countries, and net food-importing nations are particularly at risk, as they have limited ability to respond to price spikes.
The report emphasizes that the sector’s long-term sustainability hinges on its ability to embrace a dual transition: one toward decarbonization and another toward digitalization. While these changes are essential for meeting climate goals and improving efficiency, they also require significant investment. UNCTAD urges governments to provide “clear regulatory signals” and financial support to ensure that this transition does not further strain developing economies.
The Road Ahead
The findings of the UNCTAD report are a call to action for governments, industry, and financial institutions. With global maritime trade volumes barely rising, and freight rates remaining volatile, the need for international cooperation is paramount.
The report concludes that to ensure a resilient and sustainable future, the world must work together to build a maritime transport system that is more prepared, adaptive, and capable of navigating the “stormy seas” that lie ahead.
