Moscow – Russia
Russia and Belarus have commenced their joint military exercises, known as “Zapad 2025,” sparking heightened alarm among NATO member states and other Eastern European countries. The drills, which began on Friday, September 12, are the first Zapad exercises to be held since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and their timing and nature are being scrutinized by Western observers.
The exercises, which are being staged at training grounds in both Belarus and Russia, as well as in the Baltic and Barents seas, are intended to showcase the close defense ties between Moscow and Minsk. While Belarusian and Russian officials have described the maneuvers as defensive in nature, Western nations remain deeply wary, recalling that the 2021 Zapad drills preceded the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory just months later.
Adding to the tension is a recent incident where a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace prompted an emergency meeting of NATO’s Article 4. While Moscow denied intentionally targeting Poland, the event underscored the fragility of the security situation on Europe’s eastern border. In response, Poland has deployed up to 40,000 soldiers to its border with Belarus and closed all border crossings. Neighboring Lithuania and Latvia have also stepped up security and announced partial airspace closures.
NATO officials and analysts are concerned that the drills may simulate an attack on the Suwalki Gap, a narrow corridor of land between Poland and Lithuania that separates Belarus from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. This strategic chokepoint is widely considered one of the alliance’s most vulnerable points. In a show of strength and readiness, NATO members are holding their own concurrent military exercises, with Germany leading the “Quadriga 2025” simulation of rapid force deployment.
Interestingly, U.S. military officers made a surprise visit to Belarus to observe the drills. The Belarusian defense ministry presented the visit as an unexpected demonstration of transparency. Belarus insists the exercises are being conducted in a “scaled-down” format to ease tensions, claiming only around 7,000 troops are involved, a significant reduction from the approximately 200,000 personnel who participated in Zapad 2021. However, some analysts caution that the true number of participants is often concealed and that the drills may be used to mask more aggressive scenarios.
The exercises also hold a symbolic weight, as they come at a time when the West is closely watching the dynamics between Moscow and Minsk. The Zapad drills serve as a powerful signal of Russia’s continued military cooperation with Belarus and its readiness to project power in the region.
Headline Points:
* Russia-Belarus Drills Begin: The joint Zapad 2025 military exercises have commenced, sparking unease among NATO and Eastern European nations.
* Tensions with Poland: The drills follow a recent incident where a Russian drone entered Polish airspace, prompting a strong response from Warsaw, including the deployment of thousands of troops.
* Concerns Over Suwalki Gap: NATO countries fear the exercises may be simulating an attack on the strategically vital Suwalki Gap.
* NATO Responds with Counter-Drills: In a show of readiness, NATO members are conducting their own military exercises, including Germany’s “Quadriga 2025,” at the same time.
* Transparency and Uncertainty: While Belarus has invited international observers and claims the drills are smaller in scale, Western analysts remain skeptical, given past precedent.
