Introduction

At a pivotal historical moment, old plans resurface carrying a direct threat to both Egyptian national security and the Palestinian cause. The idea of transferring Gaza’s population into Sinai is no longer confined to policy papers; it has entered public discourse in Israeli circles. But what if this scenario were to become reality? And how would Egypt respond, having already declared Sinai a sacred “red line”?

Analysis

Recent Israeli reports revealed options for dealing with Gaza that include forcibly transferring its population into Sinai. This idea reflects an inability to reach a just political settlement and a dangerous attempt to erase the Palestinian cause by emptying Gaza of its people.

International law, specifically Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, explicitly prohibits the forcible transfer of civilians from occupied territories. Any attempt to relocate Gaza’s population would constitute a war crime and a blatant violation of international norms.

Egypt’s position has been unwavering: no forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai will be accepted under any circumstances. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and the Egyptian Foreign Ministry have both stressed that such a move would be more than an attack on Palestinians; it would directly endanger Egypt’s sovereignty and national security.

Possible Scenarios

1. Propaganda-driven calls for partial evacuation:Egypt will counter with strong diplomatic rejection and international mobilization.

2. Limited humanitarian crossings through Rafah:Egypt may allow this under strict controls and international supervision, but never as permanent resettlement.

3. Large-scale forced transfer into Sinai: Egypt will treat this as a direct act of aggression, potentially escalating to military confrontation.

4. Wider regional escalation: Cairo will activate regional and international alliances to prevent a broader conflagration.

Humanitarian Fallout

Gaza’s population exceeds two million, already enduring one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Pushing them into Sinai would not only create a new catastrophe but would destabilize Sinai itself, exposing Egypt to severe security and social challenges.

Conclusion

The forcible transfer of Palestinians into Sinai is not a distant theory but a dangerous project that threatens peace across the region. Egypt has made it clear it will not allow this scenario, and if necessary, will confront it with all available tools—from diplomacy to military force. Ultimately, Cairo’s stance embodies both the defense of sovereignty and the defense of justice: Palestine is not for sale, and Sinai is not an experimental ground.

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References;

Fourth Geneva Convention, Article 49 – Prohibits the forcible transfer or deportation of protected civilians from occupied territories (ICRC official text).

2. United Nations (OCHA, UNRWA reports) – Gaza’s population exceeds 2.2 million, with over 1.9 million internally displaced since October 2023.

3. Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statements– Declaring forced displacement into Sinai a “red line” threatening national security (statement, October 15, 2023).

4. Reuters (2023–2024) – Coverage of leaked Israeli policy papers discussing relocation of Gaza’s population to Sinai.

5. Human Rights Watch / Amnesty International – Statements classifying forced population transfer of Palestinians as a war crime.

6. Presidency of Egypt – President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s speeches rejecting the “liquidation” of the Palestinian cause through Sinai.

7. The Guardian / Washington Post (2023–2024)– Reports and analyses on Israeli displacement plans and implications for Egyptian sovereignty.