A global think tank with an interest in security affairs predicted that Israel may go beyond the limited retaliatory raids that targeted the Houthis in Yemen and will carry out operations similar to its operations in Lebanon, if the group continues to target it.
Amid a Houthi alert and a threat to target American interests, if the group is subjected to any attack, the “sari” International Foundation indicated that if the Houthis continue to target Israeli territory, Tel Aviv may go beyond limited retaliatory raids and carry out a comprehensive long-range operation, perhaps rivaling the scope of its interventions in Lebanon and Syria.
According to the study released by the foundation, Israel may launch a continuous and”more painful” series of strikes on Houthi logistics centers, command and control centers and weapons depots, similar to its systematic campaigns in Syria and Lebanon.
She said that despite previous Israeli, American and British strikes, and given the confidence that Tel Aviv has gained from its successes against Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Syria, there is an “increasing likelihood” of expanding the Israeli campaign in Yemen.
The study stated that after Tel Aviv managed to effectively neutralize the Syrian air defenses and significantly contain Hezbollah, Israeli military planners now have a model for dismantling the infrastructure of another Iranian proxy and moving from selective precision strikes to sustained comprehensive operations.
According to the study, Tel Aviv maintained its broader goal of countering each Iranian proxy in turn, mitigating threats, and restoring deterrence in an increasingly interconnected and volatile Middle East.
In addition to Israel’s previous operations and strategic considerations, the study notes that Tel Aviv is now “more openly considering a major offensive against the Houthis,” and that in recent months its pattern of engagement in Yemen has fluctuated. At times, it has used decisive air power against Houthi assets, at other times it has taken a more cautious and regressive stance.
This position was largely influenced by competing strategic priorities, including the ongoing war in Gaza, large-scale operations against “Hezbollah” in Lebanon, and intensive campaigns inside the weakened Syrian state, after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, according to the study.
As the Houthis intensify their attacks, the International Foundation spoke in its study of “indications that Tel Aviv is now reconsidering a more forceful return to large-scale operations, as part of its broader strategy of dealing with each Iranian proxy separately and systematically neutralizing threats to its security interests”.
While confirming that the IDF is considering a more significant strike inside Yemen to stop the ongoing rocket fire, the study quoted a report by the newspaper “Haaretz” saying that the Hebrew state seeks to establish a regional foothold to better monitor and counter threats emanating from the Houthis.
According to the study, over the past few weeks, the Houthis have escalated their attacks on Israel, carrying out missile and drone strikes, and threatening global shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Despite the initially thoughtful responses, the Israeli leadership and international coalitions are now considering “more forceful and far-reaching measures”.
According to the authors of the study, Israel’s success in neutralizing Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Syria, factors that “increase the likelihood of launching major operations against the Houthis”.
The US-led coalition to protect navigation in the Red Sea has focused on dismantling Houthi weapons storage facilities, missile launch sites and drone infrastructure.
She said that these ongoing operations are aimed at eroding the Houthis ‘ ability to hit naval targets, and hinder their ability to launch long-range missiles. She stressed that these efforts are not limited to Defending Freedom of navigation in vital waterways only.
These statements, encouraged by regional developments and international partners, are evidence that a large-scale operation is necessary to restore state authority, the study said.
According to the study, military plans focus on vital areas such as Hodeidah, a strategic coastal center and a stronghold of Houthi power, a platform for arms smuggling, and a center for attacks on navigation.
The study concludes that the Houthis are no longer content with being just a threat to regional maritime security; instead, they aim to achieve direct psychological and operational effects inside Israel.
On September 29, Israel launched attacks on two Houthi-controlled ports (Hodeidah and Ras Issa), using “F-15, 16 and 35” aircraft, as a result of which 6 people were killed, at least 57 others were injured, and caused damage to port facilities and power plants.
